关键词: 毛细支气管炎, 反复喘息, 多因素分析, 儿童

Abstract: Objective：To explore the establishment of a predictive model for recurrent wheezing after multifactor bronchiolitis.
Methods：Totally 91 patients with multifactor bronchiolitis admitted to our hospital from May 2016 to February 2019 were selected.All the patients were followed up for one year after discharge.The patients were divided into two groups based on occurrence of wheezing after follow-up:repeated wheezing group(n=41) and nonwheezing group(n=50).General clinical data of the two groups were collected.Logistic regression was used to construct a combined detection factor model of repeated wheezing in children with bronchiolitis.The receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC) was drawn.
Results：The proportion of tobacco contact history,lung texture thickening,eczema milk protein positive and no supplementation of vitamin A and D in the repeated wheezing group was higher than that in the non-wheezing group(P<0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that tobacco contact history(OR=10.145,95%CI=1.541～20.728),supplementation of vitamin A and D(OR=5.652,95%CI=1.541～20.728),eczema (OR=1.370,95%CI=1.089～1.723),and milk protein(OR=1.711,95%CI=1.079～2.712) were independent risk factors for recurrent wheezing in children with bronchiolitis.The expression of joint detection factor model was:Logit（P）=-4.751＋2.317X1＋1.732X2＋0.315X3＋0.537X4.The best critical value of the combined detection factor model was 0.457,the sensitivity was 89.47%,the specificity was 86.79%,and the area under the curve was 0.852(0.651～0.977).
Conclusion：Multifactor comprehensive construction combined detection factor model for children with bronchiolitis can better predict the occurrence of repeated wheezing.

Key words: Bronchiolitis, Repeated wheezing, Multivariate analysis, Children