河南省婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡率变化及预测分析

中国中西医结合儿科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (5): 428-431.

河南省婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡率变化及预测分析

目的:对河南省婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡率进行分析，并对其发展情况进行预测。
方法:本文对2005～2017河南省婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡率进行描述分析，并选用GM（1,1）灰色预测模型进行统计分析。
结果:2005～2017年河南省全省、城市及农村的婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡率均呈下降趋势，但城乡差异和地域差异明显，灰色预测模型的拟合效果均较好。
结论:GM(1，1)模型适用于对婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡率指标的预测，拟合精度均较高;预测未来三年各指标将继续逐年下降。

450000 郑州，郑州大学第三附属医院、河南省妇幼保健院医务部（张俊清，郭亮，师灿南），院办（王军）

出版日期:2021-10-25 上线日期:2021-12-06
通讯作者: 王军，E-mail:wj3028@163.com
作者简介:张俊清（1986-），女，医学硕士，主管医师。研究方向：医院管理、公共卫生和妇幼保健方向
基金资助:
河南省医学科技攻关计划省部共建项目（SBGJ2018048）

Changes and prediction analysis of the mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in Henan Province

Objective:To analyze the mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in Henan Province, and to predict its trend.#br# Methods:A descriptive analysis was made in the mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in Henan Province between 2005 and 2017, and GM(1,1) gray prediction model was used to make a statistical analysis.#br# Results:The mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in the whole province (cities and the countryside) had a trend of decrease, but the differences between cities and the countryside, and among different areas were significant; the fitting effect of the gray prediction model was quite good.1) model fitting was good.#br# Conclusion:GM(1,1) model is suitable for the prediction of the mortality indexes in infants and children under 5 years old, and the fitting precision is high. It is predicted that the indexes will keep decreasing year by year in the following three years.

The Third Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Henan Province, Zhengzhou 450000, China

Published:2021-10-25 Online:2021-12-06

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的:对河南省婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡率进行分析，并对其发展情况进行预测。
方法:本文对2005～2017河南省婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡率进行描述分析，并选用GM（1,1）灰色预测模型进行统计分析。
结果:2005～2017年河南省全省、城市及农村的婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡率均呈下降趋势，但城乡差异和地域差异明显，灰色预测模型的拟合效果均较好。
结论:GM(1，1)模型适用于对婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡率指标的预测，拟合精度均较高;预测未来三年各指标将继续逐年下降。

关键词: 婴儿死亡率, 5岁以下儿童死亡率, 河南省, GM（1,1）模型, 预测分析

Abstract: Objective:To analyze the mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in Henan Province, and to predict its trend.
Methods:A descriptive analysis was made in the mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in Henan Province between 2005 and 2017, and GM(1,1) gray prediction model was used to make a statistical analysis.
Results:The mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in the whole province (cities and the countryside) had a trend of decrease, but the differences between cities and the countryside, and among different areas were significant; the fitting effect of the gray prediction model was quite good.1) model fitting was good.
Conclusion:GM(1,1) model is suitable for the prediction of the mortality indexes in infants and children under 5 years old, and the fitting precision is high. It is predicted that the indexes will keep decreasing year by year in the following three years.

Key words: Mortality of infants, Mortality of children under 5 years old, Henan Province, GM(1,1) model, Prediction analysis

张俊清, 郭亮, 师灿南, 王军. 河南省婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡率变化及预测分析[J]. 中国中西医结合儿科学, 2021, 13(5): 428-431.

ZHANG Junqing, GUO Liang, SHI Cannan, WANG Jun. Changes and prediction analysis of the mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in Henan Province[J]. Chinese Pediatrics of Integrated Traditional and Western Medicine, 2021, 13(5): 428-431.