ISSN 1674-3865  CN 21-1569/R
主管:国家卫生健康委员会
主办:中国医师协会
   辽宁省基础医学研究所
   辽宁中医药大学附属医院

中国中西医结合儿科学 ›› 2024, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (5): 436-439.

• 临床研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

川崎病患儿并发冠脉损伤的预测模型构建

  

  1. 中南大学湘雅医学院附属儿童医院(湖南省儿童医院)疑难综合病房

  • 出版日期:2024-10-25 上线日期:2024-11-03
  • 基金资助:
    湖南省护理学会科研课题(HNKY202305);

Construction of prediction model of coronary artery injury in children with Kawasaki disease

QUAN HuiSONG QingqingYI Qingmei

  1. The Affiliated Children′s Hospital of Xiangya School of Medicine,Central South UniversityHunan Childrens Hospital)
  • Published:2024-10-25 Online:2024-11-03

摘要: 目的 探讨川崎病患儿并发冠脉损伤的风险因素,并构建风险预测模型进行验证。方法 选取2022年7月至2023年10月在湖南省儿童医院进行治疗的川崎病患儿296例,根据患儿自身病情,将患儿分为并发冠脉损伤组47例和未并发冠脉损伤组249例。采用多因素Logistic回归分析影响川崎病患儿并发冠脉损伤的风险因素,构建预测模型。采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析其预测价值。结果 川崎病患儿并发冠脉损伤的发生率为15.88%(47/296)。年龄≤2岁、发热持续时间≥10 h、静脉注射免疫球蛋白(IVIG)治疗延迟是影响川崎病患儿并发冠脉损伤的独立危险因素。多因素Logistic回归分析构建预测模型,预测川崎病患儿并发冠脉损伤的ROC曲线下面积为0.989,其预测的灵敏度为92.3%,特异度为98.4%。结论 川崎病患儿并发冠脉损伤的风险因素与年龄≤2岁、发热持续时间≥10 h、IVIG治疗延迟有关,构建的预测模型有较好的临床价值,临床医护人员可针对川崎病患儿并发冠脉损伤的风险因素采取针对性的预防措施。

关键词: 川崎病, 冠状动脉损伤, 风险因素, 预测模型, 儿童

Abstract: ObjectiveTo investigate the risk factors for coronary artery injury in children with Kawasaki disease and to establish a risk prediction model for verification.MethodsA total of 296 children with Kawasaki disease who were treated in Hunan Children′s Hospital from July 2022 to October 2023 were selected and divided into a group with concurrent coronary artery injury (47 cases) and a group without concurrent coronary artery injury (249 cases) according to their own conditions.Multivariate Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors affecting concurrent coronary artery injury in children with Kawasaki disease.The prediction model was constructed and its predictive value was analyzed by ROC curve.ResultsThe incidence of coronary artery injury in Kawasaki disease children was 15.88%(47/296).Age2 years old,duration of fever 10h,and delay of IVIG treatment were independent risk factors for coronary artery injury in children with Kawasaki disease.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to build a prediction model,and the ROC curve showed that the AUC of the prediction model in predicting coronary artery loss in Kawasaki disease children was 0.989,the sensitivity of the prediction was 92.3%,and the specificity was 98.4%.ConclusionThe risk factors for coronary artery loss in children with Kawasaki disease are related to age2 years old,duration of fever10h,and delay of IVIG treatment.The prediction model constructed has good clinical value,and clinical medical staff can take targeted preventive measures according to the risk factors for coronary artery loss in children with Kawasaki disease.

Key words:

Kawasaki disease, Coronary artery injury, Risk factors, Prediction model;Child

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